摘要

空间规划有效性评价是一个评估、认知、学习、反省、提高的过程，重在评价规划所产生的实际影响与作用，为规划动态管理提供依据，最终服务于提升规划绩效。因此，空间规划有效性评价的意义不言而喻。然而，空间规划有效性研究仍是滞后的，其面临的核心难题是在理论上对空间规划有效性的概念和内涵进行定义，并据此开发空间规划有效性的分析框架与具体评价方法。理论研究的滞后在一定程度上造成了空间规划有效性评价缺乏全面性、客观性和评价指标与规划作用之间关系模糊等实践问题。

本书致力于空间规划有效性评价理论与方法研究。一致性理论和规划效能理论是当前最具影响、最为常用的空间规划有效性评价标准，分别以规划对结果的控制力和规划对决策的影响力作为空间规划有效性的评判依据，各有价值和局限。本书通过整合和拓展一致性理论和规划效能理论，建立了综合性的空间规划有效性分析框架。这一框架包含了“过程—结果—事后效益”的评价，并以此检讨规划质量，实现了“规划—行为—结果—有效性”之间的因果关联。在此框架内，定义和解构了规划效能的理论内涵，建立了规划方案对决策约束力和规划目标对决策引导力的两个层面的规划效能评价方法；另外，从“数量—空间—时间”三个维度建立了结果与规划一致性的评价指标体系。将所建立的空间规划有效性分析框架及其具体评价方法应用于案例研究，一方面，验证了理论与方法创新的意义和可行性；另一方面，为对中国空间规划有效性的广泛质疑提供了一个地方性的答案，阐释了地方政府、开发商和集体土地产权人等关键主体在规划实施与土地开发中的行为逻辑。

本书的具体章节安排为：第一章是绪论部分，介绍本书的研究背景、意义，主要研究内容、思路和方法，对案例地区和案例研究内容及相关数据来源做了说明；第二章综述了有关空间规划有效性评价所面临的难题、评价理论与方法和空间规划有效性影响因素等方面的国内外研究成果；第三章通过整合一致性、规划效能和规划实施事后效益评价，建立了新的空间规划有效性分析框架，并对具体评价方法进行了改进；第四章、第五章和第六章根据空间规划有效性分析框架内部构成的逻辑顺序依次展开案例区土地利用总体规划在保护耕地和管控城镇用地扩张中的有效性评价，这三章合起来构成一个空间规划有效性分析框架应用的完整案例研究；第七章分析了案例区空间规划有效性的影响因素，提出了以提升空间规划有效性为导向的政策建议；第八章比较了现有的和本书所提出的空间规划有效性评价理论、框架与方法；第九章总结了全书的主要研究结论。

关键词：空间规划；有效性；评价理论；评价方法；案例研究

Abstract

The planning effectiveness evaluation is a process of assessment,cognition,learning, introspection and improvement, the purpose of which is to learn the actual effect of the plan,provide a reference for dynamic plan management, and ultimately serve to improve the plan performance. Therefore,the importance of planning effectiveness evaluation is self-evident. However,studies on planning effectiveness are still lagging behind, faced with the key challenge that how to theoretically define planning effectiveness and then develop framework and method for effectiveness evaluation accordingly. The stagnation of theoretical development have caused dilemmas in practice, such as the lack of comprehensiveness and objectivity in planning effectiveness evaluation and the obscure causal relationship between the evaluation indicators and the influence of the plan.

This book focuses on the study of the theory of planning effectiveness evaluation and its measurement methods. The current debate over this issue focuses on whether the conformance or the performance criteria should be adopted as the standard for planning effectiveness, which takes the consistency between the outcomes and the plan and the influence of the plan on decision-making as the indicator of planning effectiveness respectively. Different theories have their own merits and limits. This book builds a comprehensive framework through integrating and expanding the conformance and the performance theories, which includes the evaluation of“process—outcome—impacts”and hence highlights the correlation between“plan—action—result—effectiveness”. Within this framework, the influence of the plan on decision-making is divided into the control over decision-making by the planning content and the guidance of the planning goal on decision-making based on redefining and deconstructing the performance theory. The methods used for conformance evaluation are also improved by building a multi-indicator evaluation system. The case study demonstrates the theoretical value and operability of the framework and the methods, and provides a response to the debate on the effectiveness of spatial plans in China and also explains the roles of the local governments, the developers and the property owners of rural land in plan implementation and urban land development.

The chapters of this book are arranged as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction, introducing the background and significance of the research, setting forth the main content,ideas and methods of the research,and explaining the case area, case study content and relevant data sources. Chapter 2 is the part of literature review, which summarizes the problems faced by planning effectiveness evaluation,theories and methods for planning effectiveness evaluation,and factors affecting planning effectiveness. Chapter 3 establishes a new framework for assessing the effectiveness of spatial planning through the integration of conformance, performance and ex post impact evaluation, and improves the specific evaluation methods. Chapter 4,Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 carry out the effectiveness analysis of the overall land use planning in farmland protection and urban growth management in the case area in accordance with the logical order within the framework. Therefore, the three chapters together constitute a total case study based on the complete application of the effectiveness analysis framework. Chapter 7 analyzes the factors influencing the effectiveness of the planning implementation in the case area and puts forward the policy en lightenment. Chapter 8 proceeds a comparative study on the existing evaluation theories and methods and the framework and methods proposed in this book. And Chapter 9 concludes.

Keywords:spatial planning;effectiveness;evaluation theory;evaluation method;case study