摘要：经济安全是国家安全的重要组成部分，能源安全直接关系经济安危。本书从能源与经济的联系出发，分析了能源在国民经济中的作用及其不安全时对经济的影响，具体分析了供应中断、价格波动、能源转型风险的识别及其对经济的影响。在此基础上，借鉴美国、欧盟、日本等经济体经验，提出了应对措施。

能源供应中断方面：（1）短期影响表明，在其他条件一致的情况下，占比份额大的能源，一旦供给中断对经济的影响越大，但能源储备能够有效降低能源供给中断的损失；（2）长期影响表明，能源供给中断会造成经济系统一定的失衡，在经济系统达到新的均衡状态前，能源供给缺少会对经济发展造成一定的负面影响，使GDP增长下降，居民和政府收入降低，产业部门价格上涨。

价格波动方面：（1）总量上，短期看能源价格波动对中国CPI和PPI的短期影响作用较小，但长期看能源价格波动对中国的PPI和CPI具有显著的促进作用；（2）结构上，短期看能源价格波动对中国居民消费、对外贸易具有较小的正向效应，对投资具有短期的负效应。长期看能源价格波动对中国居民消费和对外贸易具有负向关系，但对投资具有显著正向关系。

能源转型方面：现阶段可再生能源对经济增长的拉动作用有限。大力发展可再生能源必须同时估计其对未来经济可能产生的冲击。过高比例的可再生能源发展将给经济系统带来高昂的转型成本，其发展应遵循科学发展观，盲目地效仿他国是不可取的。

关键词：能源；经济安全；经济评估

Abstract：Economic security is an important part of national security，and energy security is directly related to economic security. Starting from the connection between energy and economy，this book analyzes the role of energy in the national economy and its impact on the economy when it is unsafe. It specifically analyzes the identification of supply disruption，price fluctuation，energy transition risks and their impact on the economy. On this basis，drawing on the experience of the economies of the United States，the European Union，and Japan，the countermeasures were proposed.

In terms of energy supply interruption：（1） The short-term impact shows that，when other conditions are equal，the energy with a large share，once the supply interruption，it will have a greater impact on the economy，but energy reserves can effectively reduce the loss of energy supply interruption；（2） The long-term impact shows that the interruption of energy supply will cause a certain imbalance in the economic system，before the economic system reaches a new equilibrium，the lack of energy supply will have a certain negative impact on economic development. The GDP and incomes of residents and government will decrease；prices in the industrial sector will increase.

In terms of price fluctuation：（1） In terms of total volume，the short-term impact of energy price fluctuation on China’s CPI and PPI is relatively small，but in the long run，energy price fluctuation will have a significant promotion effect on China’s PPI and CPI；（2） Structurally，short-term energy price fluctuation will have a small positive effect on China’s residents’ consumption and foreign trade，and a short-term negative effect on investment. In the long run，energy price fluctuation will have a negative relationship with China’s residents’ consumption and foreign trade，but a significant positive relationship with investment.

Energy transformation：At this stage，renewable energy has limited effect on economic growth. Vigorous development of renewable energy must also estimate its possible impact on the future economy. An excessively high proportion of renewable energy development will bring high transformation costs to the economic system. Its development should follow the scientific concept of development，and it is not advisable to blindly emulate other countries.

Key words：Energy；Economic Security；Economic Assessment