摘要

现代财政理论认为“财政政策”是包含财政目标、工具与效果“三位一体”的有机系统，在现代市场经济及开放环境中，一国财政政策成为宏观经济调节的主要手段之一，并因其作用机制特性在经济稳定与增长、结构调整、改善收入分配等方面发挥着重要作用。

2008—2009年国际金融危机以及2012 年世界经济的“二次探底”以来，发达国家深陷财政赤字泥潭，新兴经济国家也在退出财政刺激后赤字率与负债率显著上升，财政脆弱性明显加大。墨西哥作为世界第十五大、拉美第二大经济体以及北美自由贸易区、经合组织、二十国集团及太平洋联盟等多个国际地区多边组织成员国，继2008年GDP增长率大幅度下跌0.6%、创拉美地区经济恶化程度之最，2010年又率先因巨大的财政缺口被迫退出逆周期的财政刺激计划，近年受内外因素冲击，宏观经济步步走低、财政可持续性风险问题日益凸显。2014 年涅托政府推出争议已久的财政改革及能源改革计划试图破解“不充分的增长”难题，然而实际政策措施效果不佳。本书由此出发，旨在通过对墨西哥财政改革和发展，特别是20世纪80年代债务危机以后历史的纵向梳理以及20余年来墨西哥实际财政质量的横向指标和效应分析，深入了解其历史改革模式转换动因与当下改革的潜力、难点所在。

本书首先综述了西方经济学理论与当前主流政策分析框架，归纳出了理解财政政策模式的三组重要概念：国家与市场、效率与公平、需求与供给；以及评估财政政策效应的三大视角：经济稳定、经济增长及改善收入分配。其次梳理了拉美国家财政理论与政策发展历史，特别总结了20世纪80年代墨西哥转变经济发展模式以来的财政政策特点。第三章通过对1994—2012年墨西哥财政政策工具四大指标（财政收入、支出、财政平衡与公共债务）的量化分析，总结其财政模式改革中的逻辑与目标转变，存在的制约因素。最后通过1994—2014 年墨西哥财政政策的三大效应分析，进一步分析财政政策制定中不同目标的实际绩效与协同特点。

通过分析，本书得出如下结论：

第一，墨西哥从20世纪80年代债务危机至1994 年完成彻底的新自由主义改革并爆发金融危机以后，为实现经济稳定付出了高昂的财政及社会成本。

第二，1994—2014年墨西哥实际财政政策选择体现出鲜明的新古典主义财政框架特点，但“二代改革”推动结构主义财政观复苏发展，墨西哥政府开始着眼于加强国家干预的长期财政调整，但受“石油依赖”、加入NAFTA后经济外部性上升以及国内政治双重因素影响，财政改革推进一再延误。

第三，墨西哥实际税收收入与财政支出表现出长期稳定的“低水平”，尽管总体财政基本保持平衡、债务风险稳定，但税收与支出总量和结构、税率在维护经济稳定、促进增长（短期与长期）与改善收入分配方面的实际效果和协同性上均表现不佳。

第四，当前，墨西哥迫切需要推进更有效率的财政改革，推动经济结构变革，促进生产效率提升，加强财政治理以应对中长期世界经济不确定性上升的挑战。

第五，经济具有高市场化、高开放度特点的墨西哥案例对新兴经济体及中国的财政改革有所启示，即在当代开放经济中，一国公共财政治理能力事关经济与社会发展的全局，政府应在其中发挥更为积极而非唯一的作用，而科学的财政工具运用是其提升财政治理能力的重要途径。

关键词：墨西哥；财政政策；经济稳定；经济增长；收入分配

Abstract

Modern fiscal theory holds that“fiscal policy”is a“trinitarian”organic system involving financial targets，tools and effects.In modern market economy and opening environment，fiscal policy becomes one of the major means for macro-economic adjustment of one country，and for its effect mechanism and characteristics，it plays an important role in the economic stability and growth，structural adjustment and improvement of income distribution.Since the global financial crisis during 2008-2009 and“double-dip”of world economy in 2012，developed countries have run deep deficit，and in emerging economies，the deficit ratio and debt ratio have increased significantly after exiting from fiscal stimulus，and their fiscal vulnerability is also raised dramatically.As the 15th economy in the world and the 2nd one in Latin America，and the member state of several multilateral international organizations including NAFTA，OECD，Group of Twenty and Pacific Alliance as well，Mexico’s macro-economy has declined step by step in recent years and its continuous financial risk issues have been increasingly emerging，after its GDP growth rate sharply dropped by 0.6% in 2008，becoming the worst economy in economic deterioration among Latin America，followed by firstly withdrawing from the countercyclical fiscal stimulus plan because of huge fiscal gap in 2010.In 2014，Nieto government introduced the fiscal reform and energy reform plan which has a controversial question for a long time，attempting to solve the puzzle of“inadequate growth”，and however，the effect of practical policy measures give a poor performance.On this basis，the article is aimed at the insight of conversion motivation of its historical reform pattern and potential and difficulties of the current reform.

Firstly，the article summarizes western economics theory and analytical framework of the current mainstream policy，and generalizes three groups of important concepts for understanding the fiscal policy mode：state and market，efficiency and equity，and demand and supply；and evaluates three perspectives of the fiscal policy effect：economic stability，economic growth and improvement of income distribution.Secondly，it makes clear the fiscal theory of Latin America and the history of policy development，especially summarizes the characteristics of fiscal policy since Mexico transformed its economic development mode in 1980s.In the third chapter，by the quantitative analysis on four indicators（fiscal revenue，expenditures，fiscal balance and public debt）of Mexican fiscal policy tool during 1994-2012，we summarizes the transformation of logic and target，and existing constraints during the reform of fiscal mode.Finally，by the analysis on three effects of Mexican fiscal policy during 1994-2014，we further analyzes the characteristics of actual performance and synergy of different targets during the formulation of fiscal policy.

Through analysis，the article draws the following conclusions：

Firstly，from the debt crisis of 1980s through to thorough completion of neoliberal reform and outbreak of financial crisis in 1994，Mexico paid out excessively high fiscal and social costs for realizing economic stability.

Secondly，during 1994 -2014，Mexico’s practical selection of fiscal policy embodied distinct characteristics of neoclassical fiscal framework，and however，the“Reform of the Second Generation”promoted the revival and development of structuralism fiscal outlook，and Mexico started to strengthen the long-term fiscal adjustment of state intervention，but due to the influence of“oil dependence”，rising of economic externality after joining NAFTA and domestic politics，the boost of fiscal reform was postponed again and again.

Thirdly，Mexico’s actual tax revenue and fiscal expenditure show up a secular stable“low level”，although the overall fiscal condition keeps equilibrium and debt risk stable，the actual effect and synergy of the structure and o-verall revenue and expenditure and the tax rate give a poor performance in maintaining economic stability，promoting growth（in a short and long term） and improving income distribution.

Fourthly，at present，Mexico cries out for propulsion of more efficient fiscal reform，so as to promote the reform of economic structure，accelerate the promotion of production efficiency and strengthen the fiscal governance，to cope with the challenge of the rising of mid-and-long term uncertainty of world economy.

Fifthly，the Mexican case with highly market-oriented and highly open economy has some implications for the fiscal reform of emerging economies and China，that is，in the contemporary open economy，a country's public fiscal governance ability is related to the overall situation of its economic and social development，in which the government should play a more active rather than the only role，and the use of scientific fiscal instruments is an important approach to enhance its fiscal governance ability.

Key Words：Mexico；fiscal policy；economic stability；economic growth；income distribution