TPO 10

阅读解析与听力预测

总论：

otter减少是因为污染，而不是因为天敌。pollute, × predator →otter↓ 听力最可能说就是predator而不是pollute导致otter减少。这是观点理由型文章而不是现象解释型文章，因为本文三个理由都一定围绕着同一个解释，而现象解释型文章应该是三个不同解释。这篇文章略微的与众不同之处在于，听力将不仅仅说污染这个解释是错的，而更可能说天敌这个解释是对的。由于这两种可能性同时存在，因此将很难具体预测听力中每个理由所采取的策略。

理由1：

确实发现了污染物增多，而这可能降低otter的免疫力。pollute↑→ resist↓ 很难说pollution不增多，因为这是违背事实；也许会说pollution不会造成resistance下降，也并不会造成otter减少；但鉴于文章背景，还有可能去支持predator理论。这种复杂度下预测就是得不偿失的了，而后面段落会面对同样的问题，于是我们就不做预测了。

理由2：

seal，sealions都变少了，污染最能解释这一点，因为污染是对整个生态系统的伤害。虽然天敌orca也能使seal，sealions数量减少，但天敌orca不爱吃这么小的东西。（通常阅读中我们不在意看似是细节的东西，但是这篇文章所面对的听力不好说是要否定pollution还是支持predation，还是两个都做，反过来，这个阅读的重点是支持pollution还是否定predation，我们也不好判断，这两个功能的信息可能都是重要的）。seal, sea lions ↓,pollution → entire； <orca>hunt larger

理由3：

各地otter减少的程度不同，这符合pollution各地不同。uneven decline ←uneven pollutants

听力解析

predation is the most likely cause，完全符合预期，不需要记录。无需笔记

First，准备听发现污染物的问题。weakened by the fact that no one…dead sea otters washing off on…beaches，这个内容非常令人惊讶，因为它好像完全无视了阅读的理由，直接去说新发现的证据，去攻击pollution理论。not what you would expect if…pollution…killing…otters，这个虚拟语气表明刚才的证据和pollution理论不符，是废话。On the other hand，…consistent with the predator，这在逻辑上是必然的。If…killed by a predator… eaten immediately，so it can't wash up on shore，都是废话。× dead otters inAlaska, eaten, × wash up

♦ 本段逻辑梳理：海獭数量减少不是污染造成的，因为如果是污染造成，理应发现岸上有死尸，但我们没发现死尸；相反，要是被吃掉，则自然不会有死尸。

Second，准备听各种动物都死。although表让步，承认阅读内容；orcas prefer…whales，确实，orca并没那么喜欢吃otter，接下来肯定反驳。whales…disappeared…because of human hunters，基本把反驳策略说清楚了，没whales了orcas只能吃otters。orcas have had to change their diet，是废话。since only small…are now available， orcas have probably started hunting those，是废话。So it probably is the orcas…causing the decline of all the smaller…也废话。<whale> whale↓ ←人，change diet, eat smaller

♦ 本段逻辑梳理：各种动物的死仍然可以被orcas解释，因为就算orcas喜欢吃whales，可是whales被人捕没了，orcas只能吃小动物，于是就可能吃了刚才所有那些动物。

Third，准备听uneven decline。better explained by…predation，不用记，符合预期。depend on…location… accessible to orcas or not，暗示了predation和location的关系。In those locations…access easily… declined greatly，是废话。However，because orcas large， they cannot access shallow or rocky locations…precisely…where sea otter populations not decline，完全是废话。accessible to orca↑,decline ↓， large → × access shallow rocky, otter√→ ×↓

♦ 本段逻辑梳理：orcas也能完美解释uneven decline，因为shallow和rocky区域是otters没减少的地方，而恰好orcas很难去这些地方吃otters，因为它们太大了。

满分范文

The article presents three arguments why pollution rather than predators is responsible for the decline of sea otters off the Alaskan coast. However，the lecturer presents three counterarguments to support the predation hypothesis.

For starters，the lecturer believes that the pollution theory is inconsistent with the lack of dead otters found onshore.听力的主要攻击策略是用某发现来证明阅读理论不正确，这就适合使用（阅读理论）inconsistent with（听力证据）的句型。 Instead，she prefers the predation theory because if otters were killed by predators，they would be eaten and not appear on shore.

Second, the lecturer believes that the uniform decrease of seals, sea lions and sea otters can all be explained by the orca theory as well: though orcas generally target larger mammals, they would have to turn to these smaller animals, since whales, orcas' main food source, are overhunted by humans.

Last，she argues that the uneven pattern of otter decline can be more effectively explained by the predator theory听力的策略是，阅读给出的现象虽然与阅读理论相吻合，但与听力理论更吻合，所以自然使用了（现象）can be more effectively explained by （听力理论）的结构。，since otter population has remained quite stable in shallow and rocky waters. These are exactly the regions where otters are less likely to suffer from predation，because orcas are too large to access these places.

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